WMT
Hold

Walmart Inc. - Retail Giant with Steady Growth

Stock Price vs Stock Value
Current Price
$85.00
Target Value
$88.00
Upside/Downside
+3.5%
Analysis

Walmart remains a dominant force in retail with strong omnichannel capabilities and consistent revenue growth. The company's e-commerce expansion and supply chain efficiency provide competitive advantages. However, valuation is fair at current levels, suggesting limited upside in the near term.

Opportunities
  • Growing e-commerce platform with improved delivery capabilities
  • International expansion in emerging markets
  • Walmart+ membership program gaining traction
  • Strong supply chain and logistics infrastructure
  • Healthcare services expansion through Walmart Health
Risks
  • Intense competition from Amazon and other retailers
  • Thin profit margins typical of retail sector
  • Labor cost pressures and wage inflation
  • Economic sensitivity to consumer spending
  • Regulatory challenges in international markets
1. Revenue
Year 0
$648B
Year 10
$890B

Walmart's revenue is projected to grow at a steady 3-4% annually, driven by e-commerce expansion, international growth, and same-store sales increases. The company's scale and market position support consistent revenue generation.

2. Profitability
Year 0
2.4% Net Margin
Year 10
2.8% Net Margin

Operating margins are expected to improve modestly through operational efficiency, automation, and higher-margin services like advertising and financial services. Retail remains a low-margin business, but Walmart's scale provides advantages.

3. Capital Intensity
Year 0
3.2% of Revenue
Year 10
3.0% of Revenue

Capital expenditures focus on store renovations, technology infrastructure, and supply chain automation. As digital investments mature, capex intensity should decline slightly while maintaining competitive positioning.

4. Cost of Capital
Year 0
6.5% WACC
Year 10
6.5% WACC

Walmart's low-risk business model and strong credit profile support a stable, low cost of capital. The company's defensive characteristics and consistent cash flows justify the favorable financing costs.

Investment Hypothesis Summary

Walmart offers stability and modest growth potential. The company's dominant market position, omnichannel capabilities, and operational efficiency provide a solid foundation. While not a high-growth story, Walmart delivers consistent returns and defensive characteristics suitable for conservative investors. Current valuation is fair, making it a Hold rather than aggressive Buy.

Latest News
August 2025

Strong Q2 FY26 Earnings and Revenue Growth

Walmart reported fiscal year 2025 revenue of $681 billion, demonstrating consistent growth in its core retail operations. The company released Q2 FY26 earnings on August 21, 2025, showing continued momentum in both physical stores and e-commerce channels.

September 2025

AI and Sensor Upgrades Drive Operational Efficiency

Walmart's stock has returned 27.7% over the past year and 140.7% over three years, driven by investments in AI and sensor technology for supply chain optimization. Current Free Cash Flow of $15.7 billion is projected to grow to approximately $31 billion by 2030, supporting the company's valuation.

October 2025

Institutional Investor Activity and Valuation Metrics

The stock currently trades at a P/E ratio of 38x compared to an industry average of 21x. Based on DCF analysis, Walmart's estimated intrinsic value is $106.59 per share, suggesting the stock is close to fairly valued. Institutional investors continue to adjust positions, with mixed buying and selling activity in Q2 2025.

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